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Markets and macro insights with Bernard Swords, Chief Investment Officer
How did markets fare last week?
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Last week was one of consolidation in equity markets, with the global index down slightly over 1% in euro terms. The only sectors showing an upward trajectory were Consumer Discretionary, which were boosted by Tesla’s strong company earnings. All other sectors were down between 1.5% and 2.5%. The rising bond yields in the US (the 10-year yield is up c. 0.4% since the end of September) have now started to weigh on the equity market.
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An additional factor was the rising probability of a Trump victory in the US Presidential election, and a focus on what his prospective tariff policy might mean for the global economy. Equity markets have risen sharply in recent times, so it’s not surprising that they are now levelling off. It would not be advisable to draw too many conclusions from this at the present moment. The good news is that interest rates are falling worldwide, and economic growth is close to trend.
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Sentiment indices were released in the euro area last week. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which is the main business index, signals that the economy is stuck in a rut. The composite index nudged up 0.1 from an eight-month low in October to 49.7. The services index declined to 51.2, still expanding but losing momentum. The manufacturing sector improved but, at 45.5, it is still in recessionary territory.
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Most of the weakness is in the core euro-area countries (France and Germany). Outside of these, the composite PMI is in expansion territory. If one wanted to draw encouragement from this information, one could note the evidence that conditions in Germany did improve. Over recent months, economic growth forecasts for the euro area have been cut. This release indicates there is still downward pressure on those forecasts.
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The euro area consumer confidence survey paints a slightly better picture. This increased again month-on-month. It is at its highest since Q1 2023. However, it is still well below the pre-COVID level. The survey shows a steady improvement, but household spending growth has been declining. Confidence has improved but remains at a low level.
What were the economic projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week?
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The IMF made some marginal changes to its forecasts. It reduced its global growth rate for 2024 by 0.2% to 2.5% fourth quarter-on-fourth quarter. At the same time, it increased its prognosis for growth in 2025 by 0.1% to 1.9% fourth quarter-on-fourth quarter. It upgraded the US for both years and cut its estimated growth rate for China and the EU. The changes reflect today’s reality: the US economy is gaining momentum, while the EU and China are struggling to maintain growth.
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We are at the early stages of the reporting season, and so far, the indications are positive. In the US, earnings are running almost 6% higher than forecasts, and sales are just over 1% higher than forecast. In Europe, the trends are not as robust. Earnings are 2.5% better than forecast, but sales are 1% lower. These results can be ascribed to weaker domestic economies, a poor sector mix, and higher exposure to very cyclical industries (Motors, Materials, Energy). The earnings outperformance by the US is likely to continue, which is why we are maintaining a high exposure to the region.
The week ahead: what to watch out for
Consumer Price Index data will be released in the euro area, which might give scope for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates further. The Q3 gross domestic products figures will also be released. In the US, all eyes will be on non-farm payrolls: can the Goldilocks theme be maintained? We will also receive the US personal consumption expenditures indices: is disinflation still on track? The earnings season will be in focus with three of the ‘Magificent Seven’ reporting.