This report is an assessment of residential land provision in Ireland. This is a vital component to understand in the context of the upward revision to housing targets as part of the updated National Planning Framework.
Key takeaways:
1. Higher housing targets highlight need for adequate zoned land
The updated National Planning Framework (NPF) will contain significantly higher housing targets due to increased population projections and the need to deal with a large housing deficit (estimated by the Housing Commission at c.235K). Ensuring that there is sufficient available zoned and serviced land is vital if these housing targets are to be met. This report assesses the system of land provision in Ireland as well as using a new dataset (developed with KPMG Future Analytics) from mapping for the Residential Zoned Land Tax (RZLT) to quantify the extent of zoned, serviced land across the 31 local authorities. We believe this dataset offers the most comprehensive measure of available zoned land in Ireland at present.
2. Location of residentially zoned land out of line with regional targets
We estimate that there are currently 7,911 hectares (ha) of residentially zoned, serviced land with no active planning associated with it across Ireland. The location of this available land, however, is out of line with the current regional distribution of households in Ireland and with targets around regional distribution in the NPF. 40% of the land is in the Northern and Western region, compared to 18% of households. EMRA accounts for 34% of the available land, compared to 48% of households.
3. Detailed estimate of serviced, zoned land across each LA area
To convert this estimate of land to residential units, we utilised guidelines on density and real-world examples from recent planning approvals. There is a very large range of estimates for residential yield (255K-1.1m units) due to the Compact Settlement Guidelines (CSG). Our baseline estimate is skewed to the lower end of this range; we estimate that there is land sufficient to supply 417,000 units across Ireland. 138,000 (33%) of these are in EMRA, 110,000 (26%) are in the Southern region, and 168,000 (40%) are in NWRA. ‘Viability assessments’ with action plans on what appropriate measures to be taken to activate residential sites should be carried out by Local Authorities (LAs).
4. Additional residentially zoned required in EMRA and Southern regions
Taking account of housing requirements, extant planning permissions and a need for a land buffer, we estimate that that there is insufficient zoned serviced land in the EMRA and Southern regions to meet updated housing supply targets over a six-year CDP period. We calculate that there is a need for additional residential land to supply 40K-70K units in EMRA (19-35% above current estimated residential land yield) and 1K-19K units (1%-15%) in the Southern region. There are important differences across Local Authorities within these regional totals. It is vital that Local Authorities ensure that there is sufficient zoned and serviced land available to meet housing targets. Infrastructure plans should be coordinated in line with housing requirements across departments, agencies and semi-states that are responsible for these areas.